Energy and Climate Goals of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan

The 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) adopted by the Chinese government in March 2011 devotes considerable attention to energy and climate change and establishes a new set of targets and policies for 2011-2015.  While some of the targets are largely in line with the status quo, other aspects of the plan represent more dramatic moves to reduce fossil energy consumption, promote low-carbon energy sources, and restructure China’s economy.  Among the goals is to “gradually establish a carbon trade market.”  Key targets include:

• A 16 per cent reduction in energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP);
• Increasing non-fossil energy to 11.4 per cent of total energy use; and
• A 17 per cent reduction in carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of GDP).

According to this article, some of the targets will no doubt prove challenging to implement. The national energy and carbon intensity targets will prove particularly difficult if economic growth rates slow in line with targets put forth in the plan. Implementation of energy conservation and efficiency programs at the facility level will prove increasingly demanding as more and more facilities are incorporated into current programs. The non-fossil energy target relies on extensive increases in nuclear energy capacity, but growth in nuclear plants may slow as efforts to improve safety and regulation will be implemented in the aftermath of the recent Japanese nuclear disaster. If nuclear targets are reduced, the share of renewable energy will need to increase even more than current targets propose.

Overall, China’s Plan represents many ambitious climate and energy goals, and lays out a strategic roadmap for the county to endeavour to pursue for 2011-2015.